Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.0% vs Stamkos 49.8% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 57.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 74.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 63.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Duchene
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Duchene
Stamkos
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
2
Duchene
Stamkos
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,081)
48.7% (831)
+3.9%
Power Play
49.6% (119)
53.5% (86)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
69.2% (26)
-28.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +28.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Duchene is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (473).
Duchene shoots left. Stamkos is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (648).
Home / Away
Duchene
Stamkos
Home
54.9% (625)
52.5% (474)
Away
49.3% (592)
46.9% (469)
By Period
Duchene
Stamkos
P1
52.7%
46.3%
P2
54.1%
52.0%
P3
49.5%
51.2%
OT
57.1%
43.8%
Final 5 min
46.1%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 05:51 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 1 | 13:22 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 1 | 10:53 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 1 | 08:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 1 | 07:42 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 2 | 03:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 18:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |