Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 57.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.9% vs Stamkos 55.8% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 53.8%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 83.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 69.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 71.3%
28.7%
71.3%
Duchene
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Stamkos
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (248)
56.5% (246)
-0.9%
Power Play
45.3% (53)
61.4% (101)
-16.1%
On power play, Stamkos has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Duchene is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Duchene shoots left. Stamkos is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Home / Away
Duchene
Stamkos
Home
54.7% (150)
54.7% (170)
Away
53.0% (151)
58.9% (246)
By Period
Duchene
Stamkos
P1
51.1%
60.9%
P2
57.8%
59.2%
P3
52.4%
50.4%
OT
0.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
53.1%
67.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 01:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |