Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +18.1% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Zegras 43.3% (+18.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 79.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 76.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Duchene
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Duchene
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
39.8% (128)
+16.7%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
22.2% (9)
+39.1%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
0.0% (1)
+22.2%
On power play, Duchene has a +39.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Zegras is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (102).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zegras
Home
56.6% (318)
29.7% (74)
Away
56.4% (319)
48.4% (64)
By Period
Duchene
Zegras
P1
57.2%
40.7%
P2
55.1%
35.1%
P3
55.6%
41.0%
OT
81.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
56.5%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |