Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 52.3%). Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dellandrea shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Dellandrea 51.9% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 75.3%
Defensive zone
Dellandrea 84.7%
Neutral zone
Dellandrea 64.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Duchene
Dellandrea
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Duchene
Dellandrea
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Dellandrea
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dellandrea
0
1
Duchene
Dellandrea
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Dellandrea
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
54.1% (355)
-2.9%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
53.8% (13)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
47.6% (143)
-30.9%
On penalty kill, Dellandrea has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dellandrea shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. Dellandrea is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Duchene
Dellandrea
Home
51.6% (182)
54.3% (278)
Away
52.2% (201)
49.8% (233)
By Period
Duchene
Dellandrea
P1
49.6%
54.2%
P2
56.2%
50.6%
P3
48.6%
51.8%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Dellandrea
58.0%▲
53.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:49 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |