Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dellandrea on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dellandrea shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Dellandrea 49.2% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Dellandrea leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.3%
Defensive zone
Dellandrea 87.9%
Neutral zone
Dellandrea 61.5%
Result
Ty Dellandrea favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
Duchene
Dellandrea
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Duchene
Dellandrea
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Dellandrea
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
1
Duchene
Dellandrea
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dellandrea
1
8
Duchene
Dellandrea
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dellandrea
2
3
Duchene
Dellandrea
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Dellandrea
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
50.5% (1,108)
+3.4%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
59.4% (32)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
43.4% (318)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dellandrea shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Dellandrea is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,147).
Home / Away
Duchene
Dellandrea
Home
55.6% (6,411)
49.4% (741)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
49.0% (717)
By Period
Duchene
Dellandrea
P1
54.5%
49.7%
P2
54.5%
48.6%
P3
53.4%
49.4%
OT
56.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Dellandrea
58.0%▲
53.5%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:49 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:33 | Neutral | Ty Dellandrea |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Ty Dellandrea |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 15:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 02:46 | Neutral | Ty Dellandrea |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:19 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 17:05 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 14:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 11:52 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 04:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 05:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |