Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Poitras wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poitras 45.5% vs Hertl 56.8% (-13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poitras 66.1%
Defensive zone
Poitras 56.4%
Neutral zone
Poitras 62.9%
Result
Matthew Poitras favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Poitras
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Poitras
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Poitras
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Poitras
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poitras
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (245)
57.0% (718)
-13.7%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
64.9% (188)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
44.2% (77)
+22.5%
On penalty kill, Poitras has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Poitras is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Poitras shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Poitras
Hertl
Home
44.6% (121)
59.2% (463)
Away
42.9% (133)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Poitras
Hertl
P1
41.5%
56.3%
P2
45.4%
55.4%
P3
44.4%
60.5%
Final 5 min
40.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poitras
42.0%▼
44.5%
43.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |