Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Poitras wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poitras 47.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poitras 63.3%
Defensive zone
Poitras 57.3%
Neutral zone
Poitras 59.4%
Result
Matthew Poitras favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Poitras
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Poitras
Hertl
Last 8: Poitras 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poitras
2
0
Poitras
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Poitras
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Poitras
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poitras
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (126)
54.1% (717)
-8.9%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
61.9% (210)
+4.8%
On even strength, Hertl has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Poitras is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (100).
Poitras shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Poitras
Hertl
Home
43.3% (67)
58.1% (492)
Away
48.4% (62)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Poitras
Hertl
P1
44.1%
57.1%
P2
47.1%
54.0%
P3
45.5%
56.6%
Final 5 min
41.4%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poitras
42.0%▼
44.5%
45.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 05:00 | Offensive | Matthew Poitras |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 02:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |