Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Beniers 49.4% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 70.4%
Defensive zone
Beniers 73.8%
Neutral zone
Beniers 74.0%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
Matthews
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Matthews
Beniers
Last 8: Matthews 3-5 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
4
Matthews
Beniers
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Beniers
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Beniers
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
48.9% (833)
+10.9%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
58.3% (36)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
50.0% (32)
+6.3%
On even strength, Matthews has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Matthews
Beniers
Home
60.0% (520)
52.4% (460)
Away
59.3% (452)
46.0% (441)
By Period
Matthews
Beniers
P1
60.2%
48.4%
P2
58.2%
51.1%
P3
60.4%
47.8%
OT
70.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:30 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:19 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:58 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:15 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |