Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Beniers 46.7% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 59.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 56.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 57.7%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Carlsson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Carlsson
Beniers
Last 10: Carlsson 4-6 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
4
5
Carlsson
Beniers
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
4
6
Carlsson
Beniers
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Beniers
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
46.6% (3,796)
-5.6%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
47.8% (360)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
41.4% (111)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Carlsson shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,820).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Beniers
Home
42.2% (1,044)
48.9% (2,195)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
44.2% (2,072)
By Period
Carlsson
Beniers
P1
43.3%
47.4%
P2
36.5%
47.1%
P3
43.2%
45.7%
OT
40.7%
34.1%
Final 5 min
40.0%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:14 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:43 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:33 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:40 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 16:23 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 01:09 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:33 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |