Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Beniers wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 42.9% vs Backlund 50.8% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 75.4%
Defensive zone
Beniers 80.4%
Neutral zone
Beniers 75.3%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Beniers
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Beniers
Backlund
Last 9: Beniers 2-7 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Beniers
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Beniers
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Beniers
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (879)
51.9% (1,083)
-9.6%
Power Play
40.3% (72)
51.7% (120)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
44.3% (183)
+0.1%
On power play, Backlund has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Beniers is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (598).
Beniers shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Home / Away
Beniers
Backlund
Home
43.8% (495)
51.9% (673)
Away
40.5% (474)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Beniers
Backlund
P1
43.3%
51.4%
P2
45.6%
50.5%
P3
38.2%
51.4%
OT
36.4%
35.0%
Final 5 min
42.3%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
42.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2022 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 1 | 10:03 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 15:19 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |