Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Beniers wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 42.9% vs Cates 40.4% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 67.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 63.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Beniers
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Beniers
Cates
Last 6: Beniers 3-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
3
Beniers
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (879)
40.4% (841)
+1.9%
Power Play
40.3% (72)
42.4% (66)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
32.7% (147)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Beniers is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (598).
Beniers shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Beniers
Cates
Home
43.8% (495)
38.2% (566)
Away
40.5% (474)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Beniers
Cates
P1
43.3%
40.5%
P2
45.6%
42.4%
P3
38.2%
35.3%
OT
36.4%
42.9%
Final 5 min
42.3%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
42.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |