Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 47.8% vs Cates 45.1% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 68.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 55.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.3%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Beniers
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Beniers
Cates
Last 6: Beniers 3-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Beniers
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (1,050)
46.7% (912)
+1.6%
Power Play
42.9% (105)
33.9% (56)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (39)
35.0% (137)
+8.6%
On power play, Beniers has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Beniers is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Beniers shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Beniers
Cates
Home
48.7% (630)
46.1% (521)
Away
46.5% (564)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Beniers
Cates
P1
49.2%
48.0%
P2
45.0%
42.3%
P3
49.3%
44.3%
OT
22.2%
31.3%
Final 5 min
45.6%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:09 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |