Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 49.4% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 59.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 60.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 60.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Beniers
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Beniers
Cates
Last 9: Beniers 3-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
1
Beniers
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Beniers
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Beniers
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (833)
45.4% (712)
+3.5%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
42.2% (102)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
44.7% (47)
+5.3%
On power play, Beniers has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Beniers shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Beniers
Cates
Home
52.4% (460)
46.3% (423)
Away
46.0% (441)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Beniers
Cates
P1
48.4%
46.3%
P2
51.1%
47.1%
P3
47.8%
42.1%
OT
66.7%
18.2%
Final 5 min
45.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:31 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 09:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Neutral | Noah Cates |