Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.3% vs 50.0%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 49.4% vs Aho 50.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 54.9%
Defensive zone
Beniers 69.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.9%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Beniers
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Beniers
Aho
Last 9: Beniers 3-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
Beniers
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (833)
49.9% (851)
-1.0%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
53.5% (144)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
43.3% (60)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Beniers shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Beniers
Aho
Home
52.4% (460)
53.2% (554)
Away
46.0% (441)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Beniers
Aho
P1
48.4%
49.1%
P2
51.1%
50.8%
P3
47.8%
49.7%
OT
66.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
45.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:52 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |