Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 46.7% vs Aho 51.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 53.8%
Defensive zone
Beniers 65.2%
Neutral zone
Beniers 53.8%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Beniers
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
11
(21 meetings)
10
11
Beniers
Aho
Last 10: Beniers 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
8
Beniers
Aho
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
3
2
Beniers
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
4
1
Beniers
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (3,796)
50.1% (6,619)
-3.5%
Power Play
47.8% (360)
58.9% (1,310)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (111)
46.3% (464)
-4.9%
On power play, Aho has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,820).
Beniers shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Beniers
Aho
Home
48.9% (2,195)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
44.2% (2,072)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Beniers
Aho
P1
47.4%
51.1%
P2
47.1%
52.0%
P3
45.7%
50.7%
OT
34.1%
48.9%
Final 5 min
46.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:52 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 14:35 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 10:02 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 13:07 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 03:35 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |