Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beniers 49.4% vs Hertl 57.1% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 74.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 89.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 81.6%
18.4%
81.6%
Beniers
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Beniers
Hertl
Last 7: Beniers 6-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
0
Beniers
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
4
0
Beniers
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Beniers
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beniers
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (833)
58.0% (816)
-9.1%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
56.5% (260)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Beniers shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Beniers
Hertl
Home
52.4% (460)
59.7% (561)
Away
46.0% (441)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Beniers
Hertl
P1
48.4%
51.4%
P2
51.1%
64.1%
P3
47.8%
58.5%
OT
66.7%
28.6%
Final 5 min
45.5%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 19:48 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | OT | 04:42 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |