Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bourque wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.4% vs Kelly 41.8% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 63.0%
Defensive zone
Bourque 52.4%
Neutral zone
Bourque 56.9%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Bourque
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bourque
Kelly
Last 5: Bourque 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Bourque
Kelly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (508)
41.9% (756)
+4.8%
Power Play
27.3% (22)
0.0% (3)
+27.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
37.2% (172)
+5.7%
On power play, Bourque has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Bourque is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Bourque shoots right. Kelly is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Bourque
Kelly
Home
47.3% (262)
42.5% (475)
Away
44.3% (296)
39.3% (456)
By Period
Bourque
Kelly
P1
42.4%
42.4%
P2
42.9%
44.7%
P3
50.7%
35.7%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 19:29 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |