Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 39.4% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.4% vs Donato 50.0% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 58.5%
Defensive zone
Bourque 84.3%
Neutral zone
Bourque 71.3%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Bourque
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Bourque
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Bourque
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Bourque
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (167)
51.4% (175)
-5.3%
Power Play
12.5% (8)
41.9% (31)
-29.4%
On power play, Donato has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Bourque is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (127).
Bourque shoots right. Donato is 60.6% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Home / Away
Bourque
Donato
Home
40.0% (85)
48.6% (107)
Away
48.4% (95)
51.5% (99)
By Period
Bourque
Donato
P1
40.4%
52.0%
P2
38.0%
48.8%
P3
52.1%
47.8%
Final 5 min
40.0%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
43.5%
44.4%
Donato
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:20 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |