Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.7% vs Donato 48.1% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 57.0%
Defensive zone
Bourque 65.3%
Neutral zone
Bourque 55.8%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Bourque
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Bourque
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Bourque
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Bourque
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (181)
48.1% (258)
-1.1%
Power Play
25.0% (16)
43.2% (37)
-18.2%
On power play, Donato has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Bourque is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Bourque shoots right. Donato is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
Bourque
Donato
Home
41.9% (105)
45.8% (142)
Away
48.5% (99)
49.0% (153)
By Period
Bourque
Donato
P1
39.7%
48.1%
P2
39.3%
46.6%
P3
52.9%
46.8%
Final 5 min
44.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:20 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |