Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.4% vs Donato 44.9% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 81.7%
Defensive zone
Bourque 68.1%
Neutral zone
Donato 55.4%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Bourque
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Bourque
Donato
Last 8: Bourque 3-5 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bourque
Donato
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Bourque
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (508)
44.2% (1,179)
+2.5%
Power Play
27.3% (22)
46.3% (246)
-19.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
36.4% (11)
+6.5%
On power play, Donato has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Bourque is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Bourque shoots right. Donato is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Bourque
Donato
Home
47.3% (262)
47.2% (743)
Away
44.3% (296)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Bourque
Donato
P1
42.4%
43.4%
P2
42.9%
45.1%
P3
50.7%
44.4%
OT
0.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:20 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 03:06 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 11:59 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |