Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bourque on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bourque wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 47.1% vs Donato 45.4% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 73.0%
Defensive zone
Bourque 73.8%
Neutral zone
Bourque 54.5%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Bourque
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bourque
Donato
Last 5: Bourque 3-2 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
2
1
Bourque
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
0
Bourque
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Bourque
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
43.5% (400)
+3.2%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
48.7% (119)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (21)
33.3% (6)
+9.6%
On power play, Donato has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Bourque shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Bourque
Donato
Home
51.0% (157)
50.2% (279)
Away
42.4% (191)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Bourque
Donato
P1
44.2%
44.6%
P2
44.7%
46.6%
P3
49.6%
42.0%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
59.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 03:06 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:28 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |