Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 47.1% vs Nosek 51.4% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 65.1%
Defensive zone
Bourque 66.5%
Neutral zone
Bourque 67.9%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 66.2%
66.2%
33.8%
Bourque
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bourque
Nosek
Last 5: Bourque 1-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
Bourque
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Bourque
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
53.0% (400)
-6.3%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
33.3% (12)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (21)
45.5% (44)
-2.6%
On even strength, Nosek has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Bourque shoots right. Nosek is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (152).
Home / Away
Bourque
Nosek
Home
51.0% (157)
49.6% (244)
Away
42.4% (191)
54.2% (212)
By Period
Bourque
Nosek
P1
44.2%
53.1%
P2
44.7%
51.4%
P3
49.6%
51.1%
Final 5 min
59.2%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 05:33 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 02:03 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |