Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.4% vs Nosek 53.6% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 65.4%
Defensive zone
Bourque 67.7%
Neutral zone
Bourque 68.1%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Bourque
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bourque
Nosek
Last 5: Bourque 1-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
Bourque
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bourque
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Bourque
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (508)
54.9% (2,674)
-8.2%
Power Play
27.3% (22)
44.7% (47)
-17.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
47.4% (424)
-4.5%
On power play, Nosek has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Bourque is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Bourque shoots right. Nosek is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Bourque
Nosek
Home
47.3% (262)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
44.3% (296)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Bourque
Nosek
P1
42.4%
52.3%
P2
42.9%
54.0%
P3
50.7%
54.6%
OT
0.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 05:33 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 02:03 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |