Scouting Report
Zack Ostapchuk holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 46.7% vs Ostapchuk 50.2% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 63.4%
Defensive zone
Bourque 62.3%
Neutral zone
Bourque 62.0%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Bourque
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Bourque
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Bourque
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
2
Bourque
Ostapchuk
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (181)
51.7% (300)
-4.7%
Power Play
25.0% (16)
33.3% (3)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
43.6% (55)
-0.7%
On power play, Ostapchuk has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Bourque is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Bourque shoots right. Ostapchuk is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
Bourque
Ostapchuk
Home
41.9% (105)
49.1% (161)
Away
48.5% (99)
51.3% (197)
By Period
Bourque
Ostapchuk
P1
39.7%
50.0%
P2
39.3%
45.7%
P3
52.9%
55.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |