Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Domi wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Domi 53.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 50.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Domi
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Domi
Hertl
Last 9: Domi 6-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Domi
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Domi
3
1
Domi
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Domi
2
1
Domi
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Domi
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (847)
54.1% (1,117)
-0.3%
Power Play
52.1% (96)
59.8% (296)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
34.4% (32)
+22.7%
On penalty kill, Domi has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Domi is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Domi shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Domi
Hertl
Home
53.9% (445)
54.3% (709)
Away
53.5% (505)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Domi
Hertl
P1
51.4%
51.6%
P2
55.3%
53.6%
P3
54.7%
58.6%
OT
41.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
59.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 15:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:57 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 13:13 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 03:52 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 01:01 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |