Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Greig 50.6% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greig 67.0%
Defensive zone
Greig 59.5%
Neutral zone
Greig 58.9%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 64.0%
36.0%
64.0%
McCarron
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
McCarron
Greig
Last 5: McCarron 0-5 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
3
McCarron
Greig
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
2
McCarron
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
51.5% (336)
+1.6%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
66.7% (24)
-48.5%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
43.2% (81)
+10.5%
On power play, Greig has a +48.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Greig is 57.8% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
McCarron
Greig
Home
52.8% (477)
50.2% (247)
Away
52.8% (411)
51.5% (194)
By Period
McCarron
Greig
P1
56.5%
46.9%
P2
53.2%
58.8%
P3
49.0%
48.3%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 17:42 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 18:50 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 06:09 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |