Michael McCarron vs Ryan Carpenter
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). McCarron wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.8% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McCarron 79.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 73.4%
Neutral zone
McCarron 61.9%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
McCarron
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
McCarron
Carpenter
Last 10: McCarron 7-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
1
McCarron
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
4
2
McCarron
Carpenter
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (618)
48.8% (404)
+5.7%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
100.0% (1)
-57.9%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (34)
43.6% (101)
-8.3%
On power play, Carpenter has a +57.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. McCarron is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (208).
McCarron shoots right. Carpenter is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
McCarron
Carpenter
Home
52.2% (339)
48.9% (274)
Away
54.2% (332)
46.6% (232)
By Period
McCarron
Carpenter
P1
53.5%
51.9%
P2
50.6%
49.4%
P3
55.9%
41.8%
Final 5 min
45.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:02 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 17:18 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 09:47 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 03:30 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |