Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Steel 50.6% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 74.7%
Defensive zone
McCarron 76.6%
Neutral zone
Steel 50.5%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
McCarron
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McCarron
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
McCarron
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
52.5% (200)
+0.6%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
71.4% (7)
-53.2%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
40.0% (45)
+13.7%
On power play, Steel has a +53.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
McCarron
Steel
Home
52.8% (477)
49.5% (109)
Away
52.8% (411)
51.7% (143)
By Period
McCarron
Steel
P1
56.5%
49.5%
P2
53.2%
47.5%
P3
49.0%
56.6%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:43 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |