Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.7% vs Steel 50.2% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 71.0%
Defensive zone
McCarron 83.9%
Neutral zone
McCarron 54.8%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
McCarron
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
McCarron
Steel
Last 9: McCarron 6-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
McCarron
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
0
McCarron
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
1
McCarron
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (2,901)
50.6% (2,876)
+2.8%
Power Play
45.3% (86)
62.6% (179)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (463)
37.4% (254)
+13.1%
On power play, Steel has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McCarron is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,403).
McCarron shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
McCarron
Steel
Home
52.3% (1,696)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
53.3% (1,754)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
McCarron
Steel
P1
53.9%
51.9%
P2
52.5%
49.5%
P3
52.0%
49.6%
OT
33.3%
41.9%
Final 5 min
50.7%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:43 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:14 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 05:03 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 15:08 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 07:57 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 02:07 | Offensive | Sam Steel |