Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.8% vs 53.1%). Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Monahan 52.8% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 76.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 79.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 50.2%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
McCarron
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McCarron
Monahan
Last 7: McCarron 3-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
McCarron
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
0
McCarron
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
McCarron
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
53.2% (823)
-0.1%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
55.3% (159)
-37.1%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
48.4% (95)
+5.3%
On power play, Monahan has a +37.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
McCarron
Monahan
Home
52.8% (477)
54.6% (529)
Away
52.8% (411)
51.6% (548)
By Period
McCarron
Monahan
P1
56.5%
49.0%
P2
53.2%
55.4%
P3
49.0%
53.6%
OT
0.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
52.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |