Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Monahan 52.4% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 75.9%
Defensive zone
McCarron 86.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 55.6%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
McCarron
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
McCarron
Monahan
Last 10: McCarron 6-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
McCarron
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
4
0
McCarron
Monahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McCarron
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
52.4% (853)
+1.8%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
58.6% (174)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
46.5% (144)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Monahan is 55.3% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
McCarron
Monahan
Home
54.6% (445)
53.4% (624)
Away
54.2% (478)
51.7% (547)
By Period
McCarron
Monahan
P1
53.6%
53.7%
P2
55.6%
52.4%
P3
53.7%
51.6%
OT
100.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.5%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 09:36 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 13:38 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 13:30 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:58 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |