Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.8% vs Monahan 54.5% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 85.2%
Defensive zone
Monahan 56.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 69.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
McCarron
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
McCarron
Monahan
Last 9: McCarron 6-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
1
McCarron
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
2
McCarron
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (618)
57.1% (871)
-2.6%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
53.1% (262)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (34)
44.6% (139)
-9.3%
On power play, Monahan has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McCarron is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (463).
McCarron shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
McCarron
Monahan
Home
52.2% (339)
55.3% (644)
Away
54.2% (332)
54.5% (628)
By Period
McCarron
Monahan
P1
53.5%
53.9%
P2
50.6%
55.3%
P3
55.9%
54.4%
Final 5 min
45.9%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 18:12 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:22 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:18 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 13:17 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |