Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Lewis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 53.4% vs Lewis 45.0% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarron 53.9%
Defensive zone
McCarron 91.6%
Neutral zone
McCarron 72.4%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
McCarron
Lewis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McCarron
Lewis
Last 6: McCarron 4-2 Lewis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McCarron
Lewis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
1
McCarron
Lewis
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Lewis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Lewis
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (308)
42.5% (127)
+15.0%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
66.7% (6)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (43)
38.8% (49)
-6.2%
On power play, Lewis has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lewis shoots right. McCarron is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (130).
McCarron shoots right. Lewis is 48.4% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
McCarron
Lewis
Home
48.3% (147)
47.4% (95)
Away
58.7% (206)
36.8% (87)
By Period
McCarron
Lewis
P1
53.4%
36.4%
P2
59.5%
45.8%
P3
50.0%
43.6%
Final 5 min
54.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Lewis
34.0%▼
46.5%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 01:52 | Offensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 09:33 | Defensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 04:21 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |