Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.8% vs Seguin 55.4% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarron 50.2%
Defensive zone
McCarron 69.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 54.0%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
McCarron
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
McCarron
Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
McCarron
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
McCarron
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (618)
56.9% (478)
-2.4%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
57.4% (54)
-15.3%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (34)
51.3% (76)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. McCarron is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (208).
McCarron shoots right. Seguin is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (135).
Home / Away
McCarron
Seguin
Home
52.2% (339)
57.4% (317)
Away
54.2% (332)
55.0% (291)
By Period
McCarron
Seguin
P1
53.5%
50.3%
P2
50.6%
60.4%
P3
55.9%
58.0%
Final 5 min
45.9%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:26 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |