Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs McLeod 59.6% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 55.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 71.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 57.9%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Kastelic
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Kastelic
McLeod
Last 6: Kastelic 2-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Kastelic
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Kastelic
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
61.5% (792)
-3.5%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
65.2% (23)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
55.6% (153)
-4.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Kastelic is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Kastelic shoots right. McLeod is 60.1% vs right-shot opponents (248).
Home / Away
Kastelic
McLeod
Home
64.9% (265)
62.0% (460)
Away
50.5% (325)
59.4% (508)
By Period
Kastelic
McLeod
P1
58.5%
61.5%
P2
55.6%
63.6%
P3
56.8%
56.2%
Final 5 min
62.6%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 19:38 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 01:51 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 12:00 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |