Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McLeod wins 60.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 59.6% vs Dowd 50.7% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 80.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.9%
Neutral zone
McLeod 50.7%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
McLeod
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McLeod
Dowd
Last 6: McLeod 3-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
McLeod
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
61.5% (792)
55.2% (625)
+6.3%
Power Play
65.2% (23)
57.1% (7)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (153)
38.2% (220)
+17.4%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McLeod is 60.1% vs right-shot opponents (248).
McLeod shoots right. Dowd is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
McLeod
Dowd
Home
62.0% (460)
53.7% (445)
Away
59.4% (508)
47.7% (407)
By Period
McLeod
Dowd
P1
61.5%
48.8%
P2
63.6%
49.3%
P3
56.2%
54.0%
OT
73.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
60.8%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
60.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 12:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 12:30 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2 | 09:16 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1 | 04:24 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |