Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). McLeod wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 58.0% vs Paul 52.2% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 54.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 91.7%
Neutral zone
McLeod 81.6%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
McLeod
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
McLeod
Paul
Last 10: McLeod 8-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McLeod
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
6
1
McLeod
Paul
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
0
McLeod
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (2,894)
52.6% (3,787)
+6.6%
Power Play
57.4% (101)
56.5% (480)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (525)
46.7% (574)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McLeod is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,457).
McLeod shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,777).
Home / Away
McLeod
Paul
Home
58.2% (1,647)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
58.4% (1,873)
51.8% (2,430)
By Period
McLeod
Paul
P1
58.7%
53.9%
P2
59.9%
51.1%
P3
56.3%
52.0%
OT
63.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
58.3%
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 16:57 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 19, 2023 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 16, 2023 | OT | 00:27 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 18:20 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 11:44 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 3 | 05:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 11:30 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 1 | 08:25 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |