Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.3% vs 56.8%). Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McLeod wins 59.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 56.6% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 71.1%
Defensive zone
McLeod 78.5%
Neutral zone
McLeod 52.3%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
McLeod
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
McLeod
O'Reilly
Last 7: McLeod 5-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
McLeod
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
0
McLeod
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
1
McLeod
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (859)
56.6% (1,064)
+1.7%
Power Play
50.0% (28)
60.4% (260)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
53.0% (168)
54.0% (261)
-1.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McLeod is 59.8% vs left-shot opponents (778).
McLeod shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
McLeod
O'Reilly
Home
55.3% (526)
54.9% (801)
Away
59.2% (529)
58.7% (784)
By Period
McLeod
O'Reilly
P1
60.7%
58.0%
P2
55.9%
56.7%
P3
55.2%
55.4%
OT
66.7%
64.7%
Final 5 min
55.0%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
57.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 15:11 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 15:26 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 10:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 09:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 11:34 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |