Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 53.7%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 82.7%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 78.2%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 69.1%
30.9%
69.1%
McDavid
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
McDavid
Zibanejad
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Zibanejad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Zibanejad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
2
McDavid
Zibanejad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
52.9% (870)
-5.2%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
53.5% (43)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
46.2% (143)
-24.0%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zibanejad
Home
47.3% (387)
55.1% (501)
Away
48.1% (389)
49.2% (555)
By Period
McDavid
Zibanejad
P1
47.6%
57.5%
P2
50.0%
50.7%
P3
45.0%
47.9%
Final 5 min
46.8%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:29 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 09:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 06:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |