Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 59.5% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Zibanejad 48.9% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 79.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 94.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 86.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Zibanejad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Zibanejad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Zibanejad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
49.1% (1,031)
+5.9%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
47.5% (200)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
46.7% (30)
+5.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Pavelski is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Pavelski shoots right. Zibanejad is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (427).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Zibanejad
Home
58.1% (580)
52.0% (658)
Away
53.8% (567)
45.3% (603)
By Period
Pavelski
Zibanejad
P1
53.4%
48.0%
P2
58.6%
53.2%
P3
56.4%
45.8%
OT
36.8%
41.7%
Final 5 min
57.4%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2015 | 2 | 19:34 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2015 | 2 | 13:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 18:39 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 13:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 06:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 14:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 04:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |