Mika Zibanejad vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 51.5%). Zibanejad wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.6% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 71.6%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 69.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (770)
50.0% (992)
+3.4%
Power Play
46.2% (39)
64.9% (148)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (141)
34.4% (32)
+10.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Zibanejad is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Zibanejad shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
Home
49.0% (429)
53.3% (591)
Away
54.1% (521)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Zibanejad
MacKinnon
P1
53.0%
49.9%
P2
51.1%
53.2%
P3
51.0%
50.8%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.5%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:57 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |