Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 51.9%). Look for Zibanejad on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Zibanejad wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.6% vs Thomas 51.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 55.0%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 55.0%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 50.3%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Zibanejad
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Zibanejad
Thomas
Last 10: Zibanejad 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Zibanejad
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
2
Zibanejad
Thomas
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
4
1
Zibanejad
Thomas
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (770)
50.1% (615)
+3.3%
Power Play
46.2% (39)
62.2% (98)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (141)
52.6% (114)
-7.9%
On power play, Thomas has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Zibanejad is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Zibanejad shoots right. Thomas is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Thomas
Home
49.0% (429)
51.9% (374)
Away
54.1% (521)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Zibanejad
Thomas
P1
53.0%
49.2%
P2
51.1%
55.3%
P3
51.0%
50.6%
OT
60.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | OT | 01:40 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 11:56 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 08:56 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 16:19 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 15:11 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 07:57 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 07:50 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |