Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.6% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 85.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 63.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 72.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 75.3%
24.7%
75.3%
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Zibanejad 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
0
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
6
3
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (770)
55.4% (826)
-2.0%
Power Play
46.2% (39)
57.9% (221)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (141)
50.4% (129)
-5.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Zibanejad shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Home
49.0% (429)
55.8% (579)
Away
54.1% (521)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
P1
53.0%
57.7%
P2
51.1%
54.8%
P3
51.0%
54.3%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 14:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 11:33 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:06 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |