Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Zibanejad wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 52.2% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 65.5%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 68.9%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 66.2%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
14
(20 meetings)
6
14
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Last 10: Zibanejad 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
6
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
4
3
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (955)
56.6% (1,064)
-2.6%
Power Play
55.6% (243)
60.4% (260)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (140)
54.0% (261)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zibanejad is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,033).
Zibanejad shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Home
55.2% (656)
54.9% (801)
Away
49.6% (682)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
P1
56.3%
58.0%
P2
50.0%
56.7%
P3
51.2%
55.4%
OT
52.6%
64.7%
Final 5 min
47.9%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 07:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 05:24 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 05:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 02:56 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 15:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 05:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 17:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:29 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 1 | 15:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |