Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 49.3% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.4%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 75.9%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 62.8%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Last 9: Zibanejad 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (913)
55.0% (1,084)
-4.1%
Power Play
59.0% (39)
56.8% (303)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (160)
40.3% (149)
-2.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zibanejad is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Zibanejad shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Home
51.1% (536)
54.8% (759)
Away
47.6% (576)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
P1
50.1%
55.3%
P2
47.3%
51.9%
P3
50.7%
54.2%
OT
45.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 03:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 13:42 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 06:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |