Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.6% vs Novak 43.4% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 82.6%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 66.0%
Neutral zone
Novak 57.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Zibanejad
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Zibanejad
Novak
Last 7: Zibanejad 3-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Zibanejad
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
1
Zibanejad
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (770)
41.4% (379)
+12.0%
Power Play
46.2% (39)
46.9% (32)
-0.7%
On even strength, Zibanejad has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Zibanejad shoots right. Novak is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Novak
Home
49.0% (429)
42.6% (195)
Away
54.1% (521)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Zibanejad
Novak
P1
53.0%
42.4%
P2
51.1%
39.2%
P3
51.0%
44.7%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.5%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:46 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 03:06 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 04:58 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |