Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 44.3% vs Backlund 50.0% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 88.6%
Defensive zone
Malkin 61.4%
Neutral zone
Malkin 71.1%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Malkin
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Malkin
Backlund
Last 7: Malkin 1-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Malkin
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Malkin
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Malkin
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (1,028)
51.1% (1,070)
-7.5%
Power Play
52.2% (23)
50.5% (91)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
45.2% (248)
-45.2%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +45.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Malkin is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (715).
Malkin shoots left. Backlund is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (844).
Home / Away
Malkin
Backlund
Home
44.2% (489)
49.3% (702)
Away
43.3% (563)
50.7% (708)
By Period
Malkin
Backlund
P1
40.9%
46.3%
P2
42.2%
53.8%
P3
48.5%
49.9%
OT
40.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.7%
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2018 | OT | 02:10 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 03:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 1 | 09:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |