Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Mikael Backlund
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs Backlund 48.5% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 92.3%
Defensive zone
Pageau 62.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 85.7%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Pageau
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pageau
Backlund
Last 8: Pageau 6-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Pageau
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
0
Pageau
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
50.4% (1,032)
+9.2%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
52.3% (107)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
40.6% (313)
+15.8%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Pageau shoots right. Backlund is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Pageau
Backlund
Home
59.3% (506)
48.7% (749)
Away
60.0% (482)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Pageau
Backlund
P1
56.8%
50.4%
P2
64.4%
50.1%
P3
56.9%
45.8%
OT
75.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
61.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 19:14 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 16:47 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 06:14 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |