Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Veleno wins 42.1% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 43.5% vs Backlund 50.8% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 64.7%
Defensive zone
Veleno 66.6%
Neutral zone
Veleno 68.3%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Veleno
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Veleno
Backlund
Last 6: Veleno 1-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Veleno
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Veleno
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (617)
51.9% (1,083)
-9.0%
Power Play
37.5% (16)
51.7% (120)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (18)
44.3% (183)
-11.0%
On power play, Backlund has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Veleno is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Veleno shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Home / Away
Veleno
Backlund
Home
40.7% (327)
51.9% (673)
Away
44.4% (324)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Veleno
Backlund
P1
43.2%
51.4%
P2
42.0%
50.5%
P3
42.4%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
35.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
50.0%▬
50.5%
42.5%
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 15:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |