Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Backlund 48.5% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 93.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 52.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 82.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Tavares
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Tavares
Backlund
Last 6: Tavares 5-1 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
0
Tavares
Backlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Tavares
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
50.4% (1,032)
+7.3%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
52.3% (107)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
40.6% (313)
+15.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Home / Away
Tavares
Backlund
Home
59.7% (610)
48.7% (749)
Away
57.0% (698)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Tavares
Backlund
P1
57.2%
50.4%
P2
58.5%
50.1%
P3
59.4%
45.8%
OT
46.7%
30.8%
Final 5 min
57.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 15:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:29 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |